Seattle Sounders vs. Toronto FC odds: 2019 MLS Cup picks, predictions from advanced model

Read Time3 Minute, 19 Second

On Sunday, the Seattle Sounders and Toronto FC will square off in the 2019 MLS Cup Final for the third time in the last four years. Seattle won its first-ever MLS title with a shootout victory over Toronto in 2016. Toronto was able to quickly revenge its devastating defeat with a 2-0 victory over Seattle in 2017, securing its only MLS Cup title to date. The Sounders enter Sunday’s MLS Cup Final on a five-game winning streak, while Toronto has won four in a row. Kick-off is scheduled for 3 p.m. ET from CenturyLink Field in Seattle. Oddsmakers list Seattle as a -120 moneyline favorite (risk $120 to win $100), while Toronto is the underdog at +280 (risk $100 to win $280). A draw in regulation is +250, and the over-under for total goals scored is 2.5. Before you make your 2019 MLS Cup picks, see what SportsLine’s proprietary soccer model has to say.

Created by two Norwegians, professional poker player and sports bettor Jonas Gjelstad and economics and engineering expert Marius Norheim, the model analyzes worldwide betting data and exploits market inefficiencies, helping its followers cash in. Over the last three years, their algorithm is up an eye-popping 13,800 percent.

It’s also on an incredible run on its Champions League picks this season, returning over $1,200 dollars to $100 players on Matchday 3 of the group stage. The model correctly predicted the profitable draw (+254) between Lille and Valencia, as well as Napoli’s (+165) victory over Red Bull Salzburg, Benfica (+121) topping Lyon, Real Madrid (-142) defeating Galatasaray, and PSG (-169) cruising past Club Brugge. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has dialed-in on the 2019 MLS Cup Final. We can tell you it’s leaning under 2.5 goals, but its much stronger play is on the money line. You can only see that pick over at SportsLine. 

The model has taken into account that Seattle features an explosive offense that has been red-hot in its most recent outings. In fact, the Sounders have scored multiple goals in their last three games, which includes a three-goal performance against LAFC in the Western Conference Finals. And despite only having possession for 31 percent of the game against LAFC, Seattle was able to record 11 shots. Plus, Seattle gets the benefit of hosting the 2019 MLS Cup, as the Sounders have won five of their last six games at CenturyLink Field.

Forward Jordan Morris is the catalyst for Seattle’s offense, recording three goals and one assist in three playoff matchups. For the season. Morris has scored 10 goals and provided seven assists. 

But just because Seattle is extremely hard to beat at home doesn’t mean the Sounders can outlast Toronto FC on Sunday and provide value on the money line. 

That’s because Toronto FC has flourished on the road in the 2019 MLS playoffs. Toronto defeated New York City FC, the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, by a final score of 2-1 in the conference semifinals. Toronto then went on to beat the defending MLS Cup champion Atlanta United FC in a dramatic come-from-behind victory, securing its spot in the MLS Cup Final for the third time in the franchise’s history. Nick DeLeon scored the game-winning goal against Atlanta in the 78th minute, his second goal of the 2019 MLS playoffs.

Plus, Toronto’s offense seems to have found its rhythm at the end of the season. Toronto FC has scored nine goals in its three playoff games, while conceding just three during that span.

So who wins the 2019 MLS Cup? And where does the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Seattle Sounders vs. Toronto FC money line you should be all over Sunday, all from the proprietary soccer model that’s up an eye-popping 13,800 percent, and find out. 

0 0