HOUSTON — Tropical Storm Fernand has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, and people along the lower Texas Coast and northeastern coast of Mexico should monitor its progress.
The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Barra del Tordo southward to Puerto Altamira.
At 5 p.m. Houston time, Fernand’s winds were 40 mph and it was moving west at 7 mph.
In Houston, we don’t have to worry much about it as the forecast track has it continuing westward. But our friends and neighbors in South Texas and in Mexico will want to keep a close eye on it.
What does this mean for Texas?
For Houston, not much. But in South Texas and the lower Texas Coast they can expect two to four inches of rain through Friday with the potential for flash flooding.
Mexico will get the worst of the weather with six to 12 inches of rain expected – the highest in the Sierra Madre Oriental of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon. Through Friday some parts of Mexico could get 15 inches of rain.
4 p.m. advisory from NHC
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK:
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 95.9 West. Fernand is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue tonight with some decrease in forward speed. A motion toward the west-northwest is forecast on Wednesday, followed by a motion toward the northwest on Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Fernand is expected to cross the northeastern coast of Mexico late Wednesday or Wednesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast before Fernand moves inland. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Fernand.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the west of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area during the day Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Squalls with gusts to tropical-storm force are likely north of the warning area along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the lower Texas coast.
RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday:
Northeast Mexico: 6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches, highest in the Sierra Madre Oriental of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon. This rainfall may cause life-threatening mudslides and flash floods.
South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.